Q+A: Under attack, Qaeda banks on allies, cyber militants

Here are some questions and answers about the militant movement led by Rosetta Stone V3 Osama bin Laden and deputy Ayman al-Zawahri.ARE AL QAEDA'S LEADERS UNDER SERIOUS THREAT OF ATTACK?Most specialists believe they are, even if the paucity of hard information about bin Laden and Zawahri makes any attempt to answer this question largely a matter of informed guesswork.U.S. missiles fired by unmanned aerial drone aircraft have killed many senior and mid-level commanders in remote northwest Pakistan, where many experts believe the leaders are hiding.London-based Exclusive Analysis says that in 2011, the probability of a successful U.S. missile strike against the leadership looks greater than ever. But bin Laden, if alive, is probably geographically isolated from the rest of the group.DOES IT MATTER IF THEY ARE KILLED?Yes. Even if they are not highly active plotters, al Qaeda's senior leaders act as motivators-in-chief of the global jihadi movement. At the same time, supporters might be inspired to copy what they would see as an example of martyrdom.WHAT ARE THE LIKELY TOP WESTERN TARGETS IN 2011?Transport hubs Rosetta Stone French and iconic landmarks remain favored targets. But the record of recent years shows that media companies linked to the publication of cartoons of the Prophet Mohammad, deemed offensive to Muslims, are at particularly high risk.The most threatened Western countries include the United States, Britain, France, Germany and Nordic nations, experts say.Security analysts also expect al Qaeda allies operating in the West to try to copy the 2008 fight-to-the-death-style raid by Islamist militants on the Indian financial center of Mumbai."The movement seems undeterred from the same grand homicidal ambitions it demonstrated on September 11, 2001," U.S. terrorism expert Bruce Hoffman wrote in an article for Site Intelligence.HOW IMPORTANT ARE COMPLEX ATTACKS LIKE 9/11 FOR AL QAEDA?For the leaders, such raids retain an undimmed attraction.The group and its most ambitious Yemen-based offshoot appear to expect an attack based on disciplined teamwork or technical ingenuity to generate enormous prestige.Some Western officials privately express relief that the group's leaders are still attracted to complexity, because the more elaborate an attack is, the more likely it is to fail."A lot of things have to go right for those sorts of attacks to work," a former Western intelligence official Al Qaeda Rosetta Stone Portuguese needs to provoke and sustain conflict between Muslims and non-Muslims to stay relevant, argues Exclusive Analysis, and one way to do this is through high-casualty attacks on Western targets.

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